San Francisco Prices Jumped 19% This Year, and Marin Is Starting to Feel It
San Francisco's median single-family sale in September was $2,069,000, up 19.3% from September 2025, per the San Francisco MLS. Condos rose 19.6% to $1,325,000. Redfin's all-homes number for the three months through September is softer at $1,579,248, still up 14.9%, with homes going in 17 days instead of 26 a year ago.
Redfin's repeat-sales index, which tracks the same houses selling twice, had the San Francisco metro up 14% year over year. That was the biggest gain of any big metro in the country. Chicago came second at 10.3%.
A lot of people are calling it the AI money. I'd say that's part of it. Equity and stock comp are getting turned into down payments, and the people holding it mostly want houses, and there aren't many. When I went on the HouseCall SF podcast in October I put it this way: "San Francisco has shifted from an interest rate story to more of a scarcity and wealth story." Three weeks later the numbers still look like that.
I work in Sausalito and up and down Marin, so the question I get is whether this crosses the bridge.
Some of it already has. Marin's median single-family sale in September was $1,725,000, at 104% of list, in 13 days, on 190 sales (MLSListings). Inventory was 337 homes, down 30% from a year earlier. For the third quarter the open-market median was $1.7 million, up 5.9% (BAREIS data compiled by Imagine Marin).
Marin is up and tight, just nowhere near the city's pace, and for a buyer coming from San Francisco that gap is worth a lot while it lasts.
A buyer who was priced for a $2 million house in Noe Valley or Bernal last year is now looking at the same money buying less. In southern Marin that $2 million still gets real square footage, sometimes a view, sometimes a flat yard, which in Sausalito is close to a miracle. I said on the show that Marin is less competitive than the city, and I stand by it, though a house that sells in 13 days still isn't going to wait for you to think it over for a week.
Two things I'd watch if you're thinking about making the move.
The first is the commute math done honestly. Highway 101 at 8 a.m. is real, and so is the Sausalito ferry. Some of my buyers do two days in the city and love it. Others tried five and sold within three years.
The second is what you're giving up on the lot. Hillside homes in Sausalito come with retaining walls, drainage and stairs that city buyers don't always price in. I wrote a separate checklist on that. Get a geotech opinion before you're emotionally attached.
If you're a Marin owner, the city's run is good news for your buyer pool. Some of the people who would have bought in Cole Valley are going to tour your house this winter. That's worth a pricing conversation before spring, when more sellers show up.
I've been doing this 17 years and closed more than $250 million, across San Francisco, Marin and the Peninsula. If you're weighing the city against Marin, send me your budget and how you're financing and I'll pull the recent sales in both places for your actual number. Buyers I represent can also get part of my commission back as a closing credit, which on a $2 million purchase is real money.
Listen to my HouseCall SF episode on Apple Podcasts or at housecallsf.com.
Michael Williams, Golden Gate Luxury | Turbohome Inc | CA DRE #01780513. General information only, not lending, tax or legal advice. San Francisco figures from the San Francisco MLS via SFAR InfoSparks (September 2026, by property type), Redfin San Francisco housing market data (three months ending September 2026) and the Redfin Home Price Index for September 2026. Marin figures from MLSListings September 2026 Marin County summary and BAREIS MLS Q3 2026 data compiled by Imagine Marin. Golden Gate Luxury is not affiliated with Golden Gate Sotheby's International Realty.